#756
It can't be easy being a pandemic planner on the Federal, State, or local level.
Imagine that one day, out of the blue, you are told a possible pandemic is looming, and that no one knows how much time we have before it strikes. No one can tell you how severe it will be either, and the estimates run from a few million deaths globally, to a billion or more.
You are told that 40% or more of the workforce could be out sick, and that others may refuse to work out of fear, as well. Somehow, a way must be found to keep the wheels on the track; hospitals open, utility plants operating, food in the distribution pipeline, and the economy moving.
And finally, you are told there will be no widely available vaccine until at least 6 months into the pandemic, and more likely not for a year. And that the only drug known to be effective in treating patients is in critically short supply.
It is your job to prepare a nation, or a state, or perhaps just a city.
Oh, I almost forgot. You have a very limited budget. You see, while the fate of the world hinges on what you do, we really can't afford to spend a lot of money preparing for something that might not happen.
What do you do?
That is the dilemma facing pandemic planners both here in the United States, and around the world. They are charged with preparing for an event that could bring civilization to its knees, but there are so many unanswerable questions, it is impossible to know exactly what to plan for, and when.
Michael Leavitt, Secretary of HHS, put it this way:
“Anything we say in advance feels alarmist, but anything we do once a pandemic starts seems inadequate.”
And that is the crux of the problem. Talking about a pandemic does sound alarmist.
Half the world's population is too young to remember the last pandemic, and it was so mild as to be scarcely noticed. Those who remember the horrors of 1918 would be well over 90 years old today, and their numbers are few. In our collective experience, pandemics simply don't happen anymore.
But of course, they can. And undoubtedly will again.
But the public remains largely unconvinced. The idea, or meme, that we should be preparing for a pandemic simply hasn't caught fire with the public.
When local communities hold pandemic meetings, attendance is usually small. Most small businesses have yet to create a meaningful pandemic plan. And the call by the Federal government for all families to stockpile food, water, and medicines to withstand a pandemic wave has been largely ignored by the public.
Memes are bits and pieces of `knowledge' that filter through society, and take on a life of their own. Conventional wisdom is a meme, as are popular jingles, catch phrases, and even urban legends. Any idea or concept that replicates in our collective consciousness can become a meme.
To become a meme, an idea must strike a common chord, and generally it must have some appeal in order to do that. Pandemics are not very appealing, and so the idea is disregarded by the public.
In order for planners to effectively prepare for a pandemic, we need the public to accept the idea that the threat is real, and possibly imminent. Until that happens, planners are compartmentalized, marginalized, and trivialized.
Right now, in a world filled with numerous threats, a pandemic ranks somewhere below an asteroid strike in most people's consciousness. Possible, but hardly likely. The idea that we should be preparing for one simply hasn't gained much traction.
Selling the unpopular idea that a killer pandemic might erupt at anytime isn't easy. We can't specify when it might happen, although there are signs we may see one soon. But `soon' could still be years away. Or it might begin tomorrow. We simply don't know.
Over the past 50 years, the western world has been pretty lucky. The worst fears we've had simply haven't materialized.
We escaped a nuclear showdown during the decades long cold war. The predictions of a meltdown from Y2K were averted because we poured billions of dollars and millions of man-hours into fixing the systems before Jan 1st, 2000. Even the threat of terrorism, magnified greatly after 9/11, has receded in most of our minds because we've gone six years without another major attack on our soil.
We've truly come to believe that the really bad things can't happen here. Earthquakes, Hurricanes, and floods . . .yes. But a pandemic? Our modern society is immune to such things.
Or so we'd like to believe.
When the next pandemic does arrive, despite the warnings that have been given, millions of people will exclaim that they weren't warned. That the government didn't do enough to prepare. And those officials working desperately to prepare our nation will likely be pilloried for their efforts.
Proving once again, that no good deed goes unpunished.
Somehow we need to break through the wall of public apathy, and make pandemic awareness a meme. The media needs to get onboard, and talk seriously about the matter. A celebrity or two endorsing preparedness wouldn't hurt. And some high profile elected officials need to begin talking openly about a pandemic, and what we need to do to get ready.
Until that happens, and the idea that we must prepare seriously takes hold, pandemic planners are fighting a nearly impossible battle.
And this is one battle we really can't afford to lose.
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