# 1648
(This is a reprint -slightly edited- from May, 2007)
I will admit that when it comes to dealing with a pandemic, I march to the beat of a different drum than most people. I've decided not to hide myself away in some dank basement with a cache of rice and beans, a shotgun across my lap, and wait for the all clear to sound.
My choice isn't the right one for everyone. For pregnant women, single parents, and anyone under the age of 30, avoiding the virus is probably their wisest choice. These would appear to be the highest risk groups based on 1918, and what we've seen to date with the H5N1 virus.
But it's pretty obvious that except for a few hardcore survivalist types out there, few will have the resources, or the skills needed to hunker down for three months or longer.
The rest of us, either out of a sense of community, or necessity, will have to come out into the daylight.
And yes, there is risk involved in that. But just how much risk?
Here we can only guess.
Based on earlier pandemics, such as 1918, we know that not everyone is susceptible to a pandemic flu. During the worst we've seen, the Spanish Flu, 70% of Americans never fell ill. They were undoubtedly exposed, but for reasons we don't fully understand, most of them beat off the infection.
Could the next pandemic have a 100% attack rate? Possible, I suppose. But if it does, I doubt we'll be able to successfully hide from it.
So, until we know differently, I'm assuming my odds of infection are probably less than 50/50, even if I'm exposed.
Secondly, this virus seems to prefer the youngest members of our population. To date, 90% of reported infections have been in those under 40, and half of those under the age of 20.
At 53, my odds of contracting the virus appear to be lower, and if I get it, my odds of survival are hopefully higher.
And third, I've got a modest stockpile of masks and gloves. Perhaps not total protection, but an edge (at least in my mind) against catching the virus.
When I weigh all of these factors, I come away with the conclusion that my odds of contracting the virus are probably only 20% or so. Even if the horrific mortality rate of 50% is maintained during a pandemic, my odds of survival run around 90%.
And to me, this is a reasonable risk.
If the mortality rate drops, my odds go up. With a 10% mortality rate, my odds of survival go up to 98%.
Just what can I hope to accomplish by going out and risking exposure?
Well, my medic skills are pretty rusty, as it's been decades since I ran a code or handled a major trauma, but I'm not entirely without skills. Even if I am unable to find a medical billet, there will be plenty to do during a pandemic.
I can check on my neighbors each day, volunteer with the local Red Cross, help setup a neighborhood flu clinic, instruct people on how to care for loved ones, help deliver food and medicine, or simply assist with my neighborhood watch. If need be, I can even remove the dead from the homes. A nasty job, but one that I've some experience doing.
To me, the greatest threat during a pandemic is not the virus, it is the collateral damage that could occur if we all abdicate our responsibilities to our communities
As an, ahem, mature adult without family responsibilities, I have more latitude than most in what I choose to do, and the risks I'm willing to take.
If, and when a pandemic strikes, the key to limiting the damage will be if our citizens band together and help one another. I know how idealistic that sounds, but it is true.
In an 8 week pandemic wave, a two-week supply of food and water isn't going to go very far, and far too few families have even bothered to acquire that minimum level of preparation. If the alarm sounds that a pandemic has started, there simply won't be enough time, or goods in the supply chain, for everyone to prepare for a longer siege.
The Federal government has already stated they won't have the resources available to mount a disaster relief effort like we see after a natural disaster on a national scale. Each community, they have warned, will be on their own.
While all of this sounds dire, we are not helpless. Unless we choose to be.
Communities that find ways to work together, at the neighborhood level and above, will be the ones that come out of a pandemic in the best shape. To do that, people will need to overcome their fears, and accept that they have a greater responsibility to their fellow man during a crisis than they do during normal times.
No, it isn't an easy decision. Particularly for those not considered essential workers. But in a pandemic, we all can become essential; to our neighbors, and our communities.
Obviously, if the government tells us to stay put in our homes, we need to follow that advice. And during the height of a pandemic wave, that advice may well be given. But there will be a great need for volunteers during a pandemic crisis, either during, or after a pandemic wave.
Admittedly, for single parents, pregnant women, the immune compromised, and young adults and children, it probably is the wrong decision. But for the rest of us, it is worth considering.
You see, the alternative is far worse.
Desperate people do desperate things. When faced with starvation, or a sick child and no help to be found, people will do what they have to do to survive. The results could get ugly.
By seeing to our community's needs, and helping our neighbors, we can hopefully avoid things deteriorating to that level. And that makes it safer for everyone.
I have to figure my odds of survival go up, if my neighborhood, and greater community, survive.
Our salvation during a pandemic may well be an army of mature volunteers, less susceptible to the virus, who will step in and take over essential jobs so that the younger, and more vulnerable among us can avoid exposure.
For in a pandemic, we have a choice. We can all go our own way, and pray the virus, and the anarchy it could present will not touch us.
Or we can fight back, by taking responsibility for our communities, and lower the impact on our friends, our neighbors, and ourselves.
It seems a simple enough decision.
Hopefully I won't be alone in making it.
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